March’s Weak Jobs Report Sets The Stage For A June Rate Cut

Latest News Leslie Blais 8 Apr

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for March is much weaker than expected. Employment fell by 2,200, and the employment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month to 61.4%. Total hours worked in March were virtually unchanged but up 0.7% compared with 12 months earlier. The details were similar to the headline: as full-time jobs dipped, total hours worked fell 0.3%, and only two […]

Read More

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects

General Leslie Blais 20 Feb

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline, headline CPI slowed to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.5% in December. […]

Read More

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone

Latest News Leslie Blais 7 Dec

It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each word of the BoC press release and assessed that the Bank took a […]

Read More

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Acknowledging Economic Slowdown

General Leslie Blais 7 Sep

With last Friday’s publication of the anemic second-quarter GDP data, it was obvious that the Bank of Canada would refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. Economic activity declined by 0.2% in Q2; the first quarter growth estimate decreased from 3.1% to 2.6%. Today’s press release announced, “The Canadian economy has entered a period of […]

Read More

Rate Hikes Off The Table With Weak Q2 GDP Growth In Canada.

General Leslie Blais 5 Sep

Rate hikes are definitely off the table The Canadian economy weakened surprisingly more in the second quarter than the market and the Bank of Canada expected. Real GDP edged downward by a 0.2% annual rate in Q2. The consensus was looking for a 1.2% rise. The modest decline followed a downwardly revised 2.6% growth pace […]

Read More

May Inflation Numbers Were Good, But Will They Satisfy the Bank of Canada?.

Latest News Leslie Blais 28 Jun

will the may inflation decline thwart another rate hike in july? The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists […]

Read More

In an Aggressive Move, the BoC Hikes the Policy Rate by 25 BPs.

General Leslie Blais 8 Jun

holy smokes, the bank of canada means business If there were any doubt that the Bank of Canada wanted inflation to fall to 2%, it would be obliterated today. In a relatively surprising move, the Bank hiked the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, and an equivalent hike will follow in the prime […]

Read More